It's the Top of the Ticket, and the politics are getting ugly.

                                                                        
 

This year, the Secretary of State (SoS) candidates will be at the top of the Indiana ballot, because there's no U.S. Senate contest this year. That gives it an importance that it really shouldn't have. According to Google's AI summary, "The Indiana Secretary of State is a constitutional officer who serves as the state’s chief elections officer, oversees business and corporate filings, regulates the state's securities industry to protect investors, and licenses auto dealerships." Any competent person could manage the job. Certainly, the two Democratic candidates, Beau Bayh and Blythe Potter, could. Yet the contest between the two has become ugly, and the ugliness could hurt the entire Democratic ticket, no matter which candidate gets the nomination.

 

As I wrote in the last post, the candidates for Indiana Secretary of State are chosen at the party conventions. On June 6, the 2560 delegates to the Indiana Democratic Convention will choose between Bayh and Potter. And the invective between their supporters has been increasing. Potter's campaign and her supporters continue to lambast Bayh for taking money from unscrupulous people, especially Trump enabler and Jeffrey Epstein pal Marc Rowan, who's also the employer of Bayh's father, former governor and U.S. senator Evan Bayh, at Apollo Global Management, Bayh's organization has so far run a positive campaign, though some of his backers have targeted Potter, mainly because they believe her to be unelectable. 

I keep thinking about the first presidential candidate I ever voted for--George McGovern in 1972. He had an absolutely brilliant organization, with the likes of Gary Hart and pollster Patrick Caddell. They were able, albeit with the unbidden help of Nixon's "dirty tricks" squad, to vanquish Edmund Muskie and Hubert Humphrey, who would have been stronger candidates in November. They also had the advantage of being intimately familiar with the details of the 1972 nomination process because it was the McGovern-Fraser Commission that created them. Like Blythe Potter, he had the enthusiastic support of younger Democrats. But once he won the nomination, his candidacy imploded. He didn't vet his first running mate, Tom Eagleton, who later had to withdraw because he failed to mention he had been treated for depression. McGovern made gaffe after gaffe in the fall campaign, including the "Begging is better than bombing" remark (He could have said "Negotiating is better than bombing,") He ended up losing in a landslide, winning only Massachusetts and the District of Columbia.

McGovern's campaign was tactically brilliant, but strategically obtuse. And I see the same thing with the Potter campaign. She's been marvelously effective in electing delegates, but I don't think she has a strategy to win the general election. Beau Bayh's campaign, like Muskie's in '72, seems confident that the party establishment will put him over the top in the convention, is focusing on November. Perhaps Bayh knows something that I don't--that the party organization has the delegates to assure he's the nominee. But Potter's strategy of inspiring idealistic supporters will not work in a general election in a state where even most Democrats are moderate to conservative. Blythe Potter, at the top of the ticket, and without the money and name identification of a Bayh, has little chance of winning statewide.

If Bayh wins the nomination, Potter supporters could feel the party organization "stole" it and withhold their vote in November. For example, Marion County (Indianapolis) Democratic Chair Myla Eldridge's decision to disqualify delegate candidates who voted in the Republican primary in the last election could be seen as a way to ensure Bayh's nomination. Facebook Posts from Potter supporters are getting more and more anti-Bayh, rather than pro-Potter. That brings back memories of a more recent presidential primary contest: the 2016 race between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, which Clinton won, but many Sanders supporters believe was stolen, especially after Wikileaks released emails from the Democratic National Committee favoring Clinton. Still. Clinton won 34 state primary and caucus contests, compared to Sanders's 23, while Clinton bested Sanders in the total primary vote by 16,917,853 to 13,210,550 (Wikipedia) The Cooperative Congressional Election Study estimated that 12% of Sanders voters voted for Donald Trump in November. While support from Sanders voters was not the only factor that won Trump the Electoral College that year, it was a factor. In retrospect, Clinton could have done more to placate her rival--for instance, she could have chosen, say, Oregon senator Jeff Merkley, the only senator to back Sanders, as her running mate. And Sanders should have given Clinton more than a lukewarm endorsement. In 2020, Sanders, who personally liked Joe Biden, gave him a much more enthusiastic endorsement, and it showed in November.

I won't be among the delegates meeting in Indianapolis June 6. There were 60 candidates running for the 41 delegate slots from Elkhart County. I didn't make the cut. The main reason is my name--the list as alphabetical, and I was near the end. On the voting machine I used, I had to page through four screens to get to Wylder.  Everyone in the first half of the alphabet made the cut. The second reason is that I'm not from Goshen, a town with a highly organized Democratic Party. And a possible third is that I publicly supported Beau Bayh both on social media and in a letter to the editor in the Elkhart Truth. I don't know whether that was a factor, but Potter has many enthusiastic supporters in Elkhart County.

I'm still urging delegates to support Bayh, who has the name identification and the campaign war chest to compete in a statewide election. And I still believe Bayh should return some of the questionable money he's received, especially the $25,000 from Rowan. But his failure to return the money isn't enough for me to switch my allegiance to Potter, who's virtually unknown outside of progressive circles and has lost the only two general elections she's run in--for town council in Bargersville and Johnson County Council.

But once the delegates make their decision, there needs to be reconciliation. I've been a Democrat long before I was old enough to vote, and I've seen the proverbial circular firing squad all too often. If Bayh wins, and I think this is likely because of his strong union support and backing by party leaders, he and the party need to extend an olive branch to Potter and her supporters. Perhaps Potter should be offered the nomination for Comptroller of Treasurer, which are also nominated by the convention. If Bayh gets the SoS nomination, he'll need the Potter supporters if he wants to win in November.

Should Potter win the nomination, she'll need to reconcile with the Bayh supporters after waging such a negative campaign against him. Blythe Potter can be charming, and she'll need every ounce of that charm if she gets the nomination.

P.S. Since I began writing this post, things have changed on the Republican side. The current SoS, Republican Diego Morales, who's been plagued with scandal even before he was elected in 2022, has now lost the support of Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita and Senator Jim Banks, who are now supporting Banks's staffer Max Engling, who has just entered the race. Engling may not have name recognition, but he'll be harder to beat than Morales. Bayh has a path to victory, not only for himself, but for those down ballot. It's still the top of the ticket.

Dynastic politics: Hoosier edition

 In 2018, Representative Joe Kennedy III, scion of that American political dynasty, was the Democratic responder to Donald Trump's first State of the Union address. He was young, attractive, and a likely presidential prospect for 2028 or 2032. But two years later, ignoring the advice of many supporters, he chose to run against sitting Senator Ed Markey in the Massachusetts Democratic primary. He lost, and lost decisively, 44.6% to 55.4%. Since then, he's been largely out of the news. He may still have presidential ambitions, but the pundits haven't been kind to him.

Here in Indiana, we have our own Democratic political dynasty: the Bayh family, with a new heir ready to follow in his father's footsteps: Birch Evans "Beau" Bayh IV is running for Indiana Secretary of State, a position often used as a stepping stone to the governor's mansion. When he announced his candidacy last October, he seemed confident he would glide to victory in the same way his father did in 1986. The current Republican Secretary of State, Diego Morales, has been embroiled in scandal from the start. Even people who routinely mark a straight Republican ballot (and there are a lot of them in the Hoosier State) may make an exception this November. But Beau has one big hurdle to clear before he gets the Democratic nomination: the 2026 Democratic state convention. But first, let's look at the Bayh dynasty. 

Beau's grandfather, Birch Evans Bayh, Jr, son of Indiana State University basketball coach Birch Evans Bayh, Sr, began the dynasty in 1954, when he was elected to the Indiana House of Representatives at the age of 26 and later became the youngest Speaker in Indiana history. In 1962, he was elected to the Senate, defeating three-term Republican Homer E. Capehart. Birch went on to serve three terms himself, and during that time he authored two Constitutional amendments: the 25th, clarifying presidential succession, and the 26th, lowering the age limit for voting to 18. (Wikipedia: "Birch Bayh") And he was a liberal in the tradition of the Kennedy brothers. In fact, he may well have saved Edward Kennedy's life after a plane crash in 1964.

Birch made a brief run for the presidency in 1976, but after coming in third (after Uncommitted and Jimmy Carter) in the Iowa caucuses, third in the New Hampshire primary, and seventh in Massachusetts, he withdrew from the race and endorsed Carter. His Senate career ended in 1980, when Dan Quayle rode in on Ronald Reagan's coattails.

Birch Evans "Evan" Bayh III got his start in Indiana politics after being elected Secretary of State in 1986. Two years later, he ran for governor, defeating Republican lieutenant governor John Mutz. Evan's politics were more conservative than his father's, especially after he was elected to the Senate in 1998. Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Coats decided not to run for reelection after Evan announced he was in the race. Evan won against Republican Paul Helmke.

Until 2002, Evan seemed like your typical pragmatic Midwestern Democrat. From 2001 to 2005, he served as Chairman of the Democratic Leadership Council. In 2002, he enthusiastically backed the joint resolution authorizing the Iraq War. Yes, the likes of John Kerry and Tom Harkin voted "Yea" on the resolution, but not with the vigor of Bayh. Still, he was a Democrat and usually voted with his caucus.

In 2006, it was clear that Evan wanted bigger and better things: On December 3, he confirmed he had launched a presidential exploratory committee. By December 15, he announced he would not be a presidential candidate and endorsed Hillary Clinton. When it was clear that Barack Obama would win the 2008 nomination, Evan was in contention for the vice presidential nomination--or at least he thought he was. Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said it was a "coin toss" between Evan Bayh and Joe Biden, with then-Virginia governor Tim Kaine also in consideration (The Indianapolis Star, November 1, 2009, p B3). My suspicion is that Bayh was never a serious candidate. Republican Mitch Daniels was governor of Indiana and was likely to win a second term, which he did. Bayh would have to resign his Senate seat if elected vice president, and Daniels would appoint a Republican in his place. Biden also had extensive foreign policy experience, which Bayh (and Obama) did not.

Still, though Evan was disappointed he hadn't risen to greater heights, we Hoosier Democrats expected him to run for a third Senate term in 2010. He had given no indication he wouldn't run until his surprise announcement on February 15, 2010. It was one day before the filing deadline and far too close to Election Day to allow another Democrat to build a campaign. He said he "became convinced that, although on a smaller scale, there were better ways to make a contribution to the welfare of our state and country than to continue service in Congress." (Indianapolis Star, February 16, 2010, p A1) The state Democratic Party named Congressman Brad Ellsworth as the candidate, while Dan Coats won the Republican primary to retake his old seat. The result was predictable: Ellsworth was from southwest Indiana and did not have time to make himself known statewide. He lost to Coats, carrying only the most heavily Democratic counties.

Evan's "better ways to make a contribution to the welfare of our state and country" included becoming a partner in the McGuireWoods law firm, a senior adviser with Marc Rowan's Apollo Global Management, and a messaging adviser to the United States Chamber of Commerce. From March 2011 to July 2016, he was a part-time contributor to Fox News (Wikipedia, "Evan Bayh").

In 2016, at the request of presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, Evan agreed to run for his old Senate seat in July 2016, replacing Democratic candidate Baron Hill, who graciously withdrew from the race. It didn't pan out. Republican candidate Donald Trump, with the help of his Hoosier running mate, Governor Mike Pence, won Indiana in a landslide, taking Republican Senatorial candidate Todd Young with him. Evan outpolled Clinton, but Young still won with 52% of the vote.

In 2016, Evan also joined the No Labels party as national co-chair. No Labels is a dark money-funded organization. It's supposedly working for bipartisan consensus, but many of us have our doubts. Inequality.org writes: "For years, the group No Labels and its close partner, the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, have quietly promoted policies that are wrapped in the mantle of bipartisanship and pitched as “non-ideological,” while being in the pay of corporate interests. They produce reports, sponsor events, and weigh in on policy on behalf of unnamed corporate donors."

Evan recently made a rather innocuous statement on behalf of No Labels last Veterans Day, in which he mentioned his son, Birch Evans "Beau" Bayh IV and his race for Indiana Secretary of State.

Beau was born November 9, 1995, along with his twin brother Nicholas, while their father was governor, but they grew up in Washington, DC, attending St. Alban's Academy, an elite Episcopal preparatory school. Both went on to Harvard, and both served in the military. Beau, according to his campaign website, joined the "United States Marine Corps. He served as an Infantry Officer, where he rose to the rank of Captain...

"Following his honorable discharge in 2023, Beau earned a law degree. While in law school, he worked for Cummins Engines and Barnes & Thornburg LLP, both in Indianapolis. Following graduation, he served as a Judicial Law Clerk in Bloomington for the Honorable David F. Hamilton on the United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit."

(Note: His twin brother majored in business and is now a strategic football analyst for the Indianapolis Colts.)

Which brings us to the hurdle Beau has to clear. In Indiana, the Secretary of State is an elective office, but the candidates are nominated not in the primary, but by the state convention. The state convention is going to be packed with committed Democrats, most all of whom loathe Donald Trump and Trumpism. And that could be a problem for Beau. He has an opponent, massage therapist and military veteran Blythe Potter of Bargersville. Potter has run for both town council and Johnson County council and lost both times, but she's in an extremely Republican area--the last time the county voted for a Democratic presidential candidate was in 1948. In a normal year, she'd be swept away in a landslide for Beau. But this isn't a normal year, and Beau hasn't done much to reassure Hoosier Democrats he's on their side

As Potter and her allies have pointed out, Beau Bayh has accepted large donations from Trump-affiliated individuals and political action committees, including a $25,000 gift from Apollo Global Management CEO (and Evan's employer) Marc Rowan, who gave a million dollars to Trump's 2020 campaign and over $3 million to Republican causes and candidates in the first half of 2025. Rowan even shows up in the Epstein Files. And while there's nothing to connect him with Jeffrey Epstein's trafficking and exploitation of young women and girls, Rowan was in contact with Epstein as late as 2016, when he had breakfast at Epstein's Manhattan townhouse. I, along with many other Hoosier Democrats, have urged him to return the $25,000. He doesn't need it. His campaign is loaded. Yet he refuses to respond to pleas to return the money, at least as of this writing.

Perhaps he doesn't have to. Perhaps the convention delegates will be so relieved to have a Bayh on the ticket that they'll nominate him even if he doesn't return the money. But I've seen a lot of angry posts on social media from people who won't vote for Beau even if he should return the tainted money." And quite a few of those people are going to be in Indianapolis for the convention.

I may or may not be at the convention. I've filed as a candidate, but in my county, Elkhart, there are 41 delegate slots and 61 people who filed papers to be delegates. If the official listing for the delegate slots remains alphabetical, I'll be toward the end of the list, which means that I'm at a distinct disadvantage. Too many voters, looking at the list in on the ballot, will be tempted to vote for the first 41. As for being on a list endorsed by Bayh or Potter, I doubt I'll be on one because I'm not yet committed to Bayh or Potter. But if I am a delegate, I'll vote for Beau Bayh if he returns that $25,000 from Rowan. Otherwise, I'll probably vote for Blythe Potter, if only to cast a protest vote. I'll vote for the Democratic candidate in the November.

"The humble bus," the war against passenger rail, and the need for cooperation

 

After Amtrak began on May 1, 1971, one of the loudest opponents of the new National Railroad Passenger Corporation was the intercity bus industry. The National Association of Motor Bus Owners, which, after much ridicule at the acronym NAMBO, changed its name to the American Bus Association, once had a spokesman at every Congressional hearing about Amtrak, who urged an end to Amtrak funding. And there was an echo from the media, most notably from New Republic staff writer (1978-1981) and Chicago Tribune columnist (1982-present) Steve Chapman, who waxed poetic about the "humble bus" as the solution to the nation's transportation problems. 

Half a century later, Amtrak is still with us, though still as a sub-skeletal network, while the intercity bus industry is in shambles. Greyhound, the largest American intercity bus operator, sold many of its downtown stations to private capital firms, including, ironically, Alden Global Capital, owner of Chapman's Tribune, whose real estate subsidiary, Twenty Lake Holdings, in 2022 purchased 33 Greyhound stations, including the iconic Cleveland depot (pictured), for $140 million. The result is that in many of those cities, bus passengers are waiting at curbside bus stops with no toilet facilities or even shelter.

Other bus lines are simply shutting down. Burlington Trailways, which cooperated with Amtrak on its routes between Indianapolis and Davenport, Iowa and Indianapolis and Des Moines, abruptly canceled its scheduled operations effective October 18, 2025. Jefferson Lines has since taken over some of Burlington's operations, including the Indianapolis-Davenport route.

One big advantage Amtrak has is an organized coalition of rail passengers, especially the Rail Passengers Association and the High Speed Rail Alliance, along with numerous state and local groups, who have effectively lobbied Congress and state legislatures for maintaining and expanding Amtrak services. Bus passengers have no such lobby group. While rail passengers come from all socioeconomic groups, there are enough affluent and educated people to support such organizations. According to a CNN Business article, "roughly three-quarters of intercity bus riders have annual incomes of less than $40,000." It's unlikely we'll have a Bus Passengers Association.

From the inception of Amtrak, the intercity bus operators have, for the most part, treated the NRPC as a hated competitor, something to be eliminated. Yet there have been many instances of cooperation between Amtrak and the bus operators, though far fewer than there ought to be. When I was a reservation clerk in Chicago, we had several copies of Russell's National Motor Coach Guide in the office, and I became adept at helping people with connecting buses to get them to places Amtrak didn't go. Russell's has been gone for quite some time, but there's still a need for bus connections not listed in the Amtrak website.

It appears to be up to the rail passengers, individually and collectively, to lobby for a coordination of ground transportation operations and facilities. For example, Chicago Union Station desperately needs to be expanded beyond its current size. Amtrak is already planning to use the tracks underneath the Old Post Office south of the station. It would make sense to expand the station over the tracks between Jackson Boulevard and Harrison Street and include an intercity bus terminal. The intercity bus network is too important to be left to die at the hands of private capital.

Note: Chapman took a buyout after Alden Capital took over the Tribune, but he continues to write a monthly column for the paper.

Image: Cleveland Ohio Greyhound Station, 2023. By w_lemay - https://www.flickr.com/photos/59081381@N03/52991753053/, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=134376615